Eur/Usd technical perspective

Pair is back up, fighting the 1.4680 zone. Seems we are getting into a comfortable consolidation zone under 1.4700 and basing in the 1.4550 strong static support level, also 50% retracement of the last daily upleg. Pair should not easily overcome 1.4680 1.4720 resistances, so expect some downside movement from here, with immediate supports around 1.4640 and 1.4610, 38.2% of the rally. If under, next key support lie at the 1.4515, and then 1.4440 strong zone. Above 1.4720, last resistance comes around 1.4760 zone.

Starting the day

Hi everybody, and welcome back! I have a terrible cold these days, part because of a sudden return of winter to Buenos Aires, part maybe because I’m a bit over excited on coming to the ITC! Really for me will be a hell of an experience also, travelling alone, away from my girls. They are still too young, I had travelled in the past, not since I become a mom. Life changes a lot! Anyway, forex! forex! not me! As we talk last night in the Daily Wrap Up Webinar, here at FXstreet.com at 22:30 GMT, gold remains the forex market leader. Where gold goes, there goes dollar. Back above $1000/oz, rising almost 10 dollars in the last 24 hours, and dragging greenback down across the board. Data around the world since past Asian session has been quite positive, except maybe for Europe inflation readings, supporting greenback falling trend. But don’t you there to talk about deflation in the euro zone ok? Anyway, we have GDP and ADP in the U.S. in a couple of hours, so market will wait also for that, to see where are we heading from here. Here is the link for today’s calendar:

http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/economic-calendar/

Majors’s sentiment for today

Here is majors sentiment for today:

Eur/Usd: Bearish

Gbp/Usd: Bearish

Usd/Chf: Bullish

Usd/Jpy: Bearish

Eur/Gbp: Bullish

Starting the day

Hi everybody and welcome! Monday again, and some risk aversion is seen since early Asian opening, with stocks down, losing some key level we are going to see in a few minutes, and gold contained under $ 1000/oz. Majors seem to have find a top against greenback, and movements are developing with different strength across the board. Mostly consolidating this morning, Yen strength, that reached the 88.20 zone early Asia, also points for more risk related movements. The currency has rose strongly against major rivals, reaching multi months lows, and rebounded quite strongly from there. Still not bottom seem at this point. Anyway, here is the link for today’s calendar:

http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/economic-calendar/

EUR/USD weekly charts

We have been following this monthly Fibo since long ago. Pair open this week above the 61.8%, confirming in a way, the bullish midterm trend. the level is around 1.4610, and we saw the pair reached that zone both yesterday and today early Asia, and for now, unable to break under. Still we are barely 60 pips away. So a weekly close under that level, and even better under 1.4550 support, will likely deny the upside continuation, while above that level, better above 1.4700, will confirm the upside continuation. Watch the zone, and the weekly close! If we turn to 4 hours charts, pair is slightly bearish, not quite clear, yet pointing to the downside. Supports from current level come at the very close 1.4660 zone, followed by 1.4610. Clear break under will send us to the 1.4550 strong zone, and I can’t see at this point, the pair falling further. To the upside, resistances come at 1.4700, 1.4735 and 1.4780.

Weekly Trading Update - August 31 - September 04 2009

Well thankfully it's been a much more profitable week this week after two winning trades on the EUR/GBP and GBP/USD pairs. There was also an opportunity to trade the EUR/USD pair as well this week but despite the daily Supertrend indicating a bullish trend, I'm reluctant to go long at the moment because I think this pair's heading lower in the next week or so. Plus there's been a lot of sideways action on this pair recently which is enough to put me off.

Anyway back to my trading results for this week and the first trade was on the GBP/USD pair on Tuesday afternoon. I had been waiting for this pair to break downwards and it do so convincingly during one 4-hour period. So as a result of the EMAs crossing downwards I entered on a pull-back at exactly 1.6250.

Thankfully the price continued downwards and I closed half the position for 50 points and let the other half run, moving my stop loss down to break-even. Later on the price had moved down to around 1.6125 so as it was getting late I moved my stop loss to 1.6150 and my target price to 1.6050 and let it run overnight. Sadly the stop loss was the one that got triggered but it was still a decent enough profit.

Incidentally the GBP/USD pair looks as if it may be about to cross downwards before the day is out, but I'm hoping it will hold on until next week because these crossovers often have much more momentum behind them at the start of the trading week.

The other trade was on the EUR/GBP pair and if you've been reading my blog this week you will know all about this trade already because I discussed it in some detail in this blog post. As I mentioned at the time this was a low-risk high-reward trade, and thankfully the 30 point stop loss wasn't triggered and I managed to bank a healthy profit of 74 points.

It has actually dropped another 40 points since then but I was so bored watching this pair that I closed out the position shortly after it hit my initial price target.

Nevertheless it's been a profitable enough week on the whole.

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