Friday, October 2, 2009

Eur/Usd technical perspective

Pair is back up, fighting the 1.4680 zone. Seems we are getting into a comfortable consolidation zone under 1.4700 and basing in the 1.4550 strong static support level, also 50% retracement of the last daily upleg. Pair should not easily overcome 1.4680 1.4720 resistances, so expect some downside movement from here, with immediate supports around 1.4640 and 1.4610, 38.2% of the rally. If under, next key support lie at the 1.4515, and then 1.4440 strong zone. Above 1.4720, last resistance comes around 1.4760 zone.

Starting the day

Hi everybody, and welcome back! I have a terrible cold these days, part because of a sudden return of winter to Buenos Aires, part maybe because I’m a bit over excited on coming to the ITC! Really for me will be a hell of an experience also, travelling alone, away from my girls. They are still too young, I had travelled in the past, not since I become a mom. Life changes a lot! Anyway, forex! forex! not me! As we talk last night in the Daily Wrap Up Webinar, here at FXstreet.com at 22:30 GMT, gold remains the forex market leader. Where gold goes, there goes dollar. Back above $1000/oz, rising almost 10 dollars in the last 24 hours, and dragging greenback down across the board. Data around the world since past Asian session has been quite positive, except maybe for Europe inflation readings, supporting greenback falling trend. But don’t you there to talk about deflation in the euro zone ok? Anyway, we have GDP and ADP in the U.S. in a couple of hours, so market will wait also for that, to see where are we heading from here. Here is the link for today’s calendar:

http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/economic-calendar/

Majors’s sentiment for today

Here is majors sentiment for today:

Eur/Usd: Bearish

Gbp/Usd: Bearish

Usd/Chf: Bullish

Usd/Jpy: Bearish

Eur/Gbp: Bullish

Starting the day

Hi everybody and welcome! Monday again, and some risk aversion is seen since early Asian opening, with stocks down, losing some key level we are going to see in a few minutes, and gold contained under $ 1000/oz. Majors seem to have find a top against greenback, and movements are developing with different strength across the board. Mostly consolidating this morning, Yen strength, that reached the 88.20 zone early Asia, also points for more risk related movements. The currency has rose strongly against major rivals, reaching multi months lows, and rebounded quite strongly from there. Still not bottom seem at this point. Anyway, here is the link for today’s calendar:

http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/economic-calendar/

EUR/USD weekly charts

We have been following this monthly Fibo since long ago. Pair open this week above the 61.8%, confirming in a way, the bullish midterm trend. the level is around 1.4610, and we saw the pair reached that zone both yesterday and today early Asia, and for now, unable to break under. Still we are barely 60 pips away. So a weekly close under that level, and even better under 1.4550 support, will likely deny the upside continuation, while above that level, better above 1.4700, will confirm the upside continuation. Watch the zone, and the weekly close! If we turn to 4 hours charts, pair is slightly bearish, not quite clear, yet pointing to the downside. Supports from current level come at the very close 1.4660 zone, followed by 1.4610. Clear break under will send us to the 1.4550 strong zone, and I can’t see at this point, the pair falling further. To the upside, resistances come at 1.4700, 1.4735 and 1.4780.